YPF
📉 YPF’s ADR plummeted nearly 9% during the week, reflecting significant investor concern and underperformance compared to regional peers.
📉 Technical analysis shows the stock broke below the 200-day moving average after failing to surpass shorter-term averages, now facing further downside towards its underlying trendline support.
🛢️ A negative outlook for crude oil prices, potentially falling towards $50 following OPEC’s decision to increase production, poses a significant headwind for YPF and the Argentine energy sector.
@ClaveBursatilTV:
“We can see that IPF fell no less than 9% with its ADR in the United States, closing a bad week. Let’s see that after recognizing the underlying upward trend, IPF managed to get above the 200-day average, failed to pass the short-term averages, the death cross occurred between the 150-day and 100-day averages. It tested the 200-day average and is heading towards the trend floor. The one that hasn’t had a good week either is crude oil, which fails to recover $60, closing at $58. And this, as we saw, hits the Merbal because the energy sector, and particularly the oil sector, is one of the most important in the weighting of shares in the Merbal index, and we have very important shares like IPF, Pampa, and many others. However, the price of oil also affects the other indices we saw, including the S&P, the Dow Jones, and the Latin American index. So while this crude oil data is not positive for the Merbal, it also didn’t affect the S&P and Latin America, so we cannot attribute the entire fall of Argentine stocks to the movement of crude oil. In fact, I bring you breaking news released on Saturday morning, May 3rd, that finally occurred at the OPEC meeting, the oil-producing countries, where they agreed to accelerate production once again by about 400,000 extra barrels per day. Keep in mind that OPEC had a policy of cutting production to support the price, and with this increase in production, we can realize that OPEC has changed the bias of its policy, seeking a cheaper barrel in line with what Trump wants to lower inflation in the United States. In fact, surely the orange president will come out to celebrate this measure with crude at $58. This news on Saturday, when crude futures open on Sunday, we will surely see a collapse. It is possible that we are seeing crude oil closer to $50 than $60, and that is certainly not good news for Argentine stocks. With the news of the OPEC issue and the likely fall in crude oil, I don’t think we’ll have very good days for stocks, at least the oil and energy ones, and the Merval index has a significant weighting in this sector.”
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