by Arte de invertir | 20/04/2025 10:13 AM | TLT
📉 The TLT ETF, representing long-term US Treasury bonds, has significantly underperformed, losing 5% recently and 50% over the last five years, failing its traditional role as a portfolio stabilizer.
🇨🇳 Major holders like China are selling US debt due to geopolitical tensions, putting downward pressure on bond prices.
🏦 Central banks face constraints; intervening to buy bonds and stabilize the market could exacerbate already high inflation, leaving bonds vulnerable.
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by Arte de invertir | 20/04/2025 10:13 AM | GLD
📈 Gold, easily accessible via ETFs like GLD, is recommended by Ray Dalio (10-15% portfolio allocation) as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
🛡️ Unlike bonds (like TLT), gold has provided real protection recently, appreciating significantly (79% over a period) while long-term bonds lost value.
🏦 Central banks are increasing gold purchases significantly, viewing it as a safer asset than fiat currencies like the dollar, further boosting demand and price.
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by Arte de invertir | 14/04/2025 10:30 AM | CPB
🛡️ Campbell Soup shows resilience to tariffs due to its local U.S. production and consumption model for essential food products.
📉 Despite recent volume declines from price hikes, early signs of volume recovery (1% growth in Q3/Q4 2024) alongside price increases suggest potential stabilization.
💰 The stock trades near 10-year valuation lows (12x P/E vs. 16x average) and offers a 4% dividend yield, but requires sustained growth to justify multiple expansion.
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by Arte de invertir | 14/04/2025 10:30 AM | DG
🛡️ Dollar General benefits from low exposure to tariffs (only 4% imports vs. 40% for Dollar Tree) as it primarily sells locally sourced goods like food and beverages.
📈 The company shows signs of recovery after facing challenges like wage hikes and inventory issues, with Q4 sales and comparable store sales increasing, and inventory levels reducing.
🏪 Continued expansion (700 new stores, 1600 remodels) and a valuation below historical averages (15x P/E vs. 18x) suggest management confidence and potential upside.
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by Arte de invertir | 14/04/2025 10:30 AM | XOM
🛢️ Exxon Mobil possesses vast oil reserves providing high visibility for earnings growth through 2030, attracting investors seeking certainty amid market uncertainty.
💰 The stock trades at a significant discount (<12x 2025 P/E) compared to the S&P 500 (19x P/E) and offers an attractive dividend yield near 4%.
📈 Long-term oil market dynamics appear favorable, with rising demand projected and lagging supply investment potentially supporting higher prices, benefiting low-cost producers like Exxon.
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