📉 The probability of a recession in the US economy is currently below 20%, according to the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia.
📊 Recent data indicates stability and health in the US labor market, along with expansion in manufacturing and services, supporting low recession probabilities.
📈 Projections for 2025 estimate a GDP growth of around 1.82% annually for the United States, further diminishing recession fears.
📈 The dollar future curve is inverted, indicating market uncertainty about future monetary policy.
🤔 Companies are closing carry trades and demanding dollars due to uncertainty about a possible change in monetary and exchange rate regimes.
📉 The Central Bank's intervention strategy may be more sophisticated, allowing for overshooting before intervening.
🚗 Importers like Toyota Argentina were using a carry trade strategy, borrowing in dollars and investing in pesos.
🔄 Due to uncertainty about a possible change in the monetary and exchange rate regime, these companies are now closing their carry trades and repaying their debts in dollars.
📈 This shift is contributing to the increased demand for dollars and the pressure on the exchange rate.
🛡️ The Bopreal 26 (BP26D) is presented as an ideal bond for the most conservative profile.
📅 It matures in May of next year, with a low perceived price risk.
📉 It is reaching a yield of 10%, considered attractive for its risk level.
🇦🇷 The AL29 is considered ideal for a medium-risk profile, acting as a 'bond that acts as a bond.'
🗓️ It matures in 2029, offering a 15% yield in dollars at the current parity.
📉 There is a low probability of restructuring, even with a change in government.
