📈 The dollar future curve is inverted, indicating market uncertainty about future monetary policy.
🤔 Companies are closing carry trades and demanding dollars due to uncertainty about a possible change in monetary and exchange rate regimes.
📉 The Central Bank’s intervention strategy may be more sophisticated, allowing for overshooting before intervening.
@ClaveBursatilTV:
“Terrible, the dollar future blew up, and the curve was inverted, Tincho. The dollar future curve was quite inverted. I think I sent it to Clave a little while ago. But even so, if you can share it and we start to see it, do the autopsy. You see it here? You don’t see it, no? Now you’re not sharing. Ah, yes, you are sharing. Let’s see. Yes, it has a bit of, ready, ready, we saw it, we’re already seeing it. We have here, well, the shortest contract, the rate almost 135%, not bad. But, I mean, I do like Fantino, wait, wait, wait, you’re telling me that the future that expires next month flew up? No, not the one that expires this month, March. We are in March, that is. But then, those people think that this month the official dollar will fly? And look, I don’t know if they think that, but I think that just in case, they buy. I am one of those who believes, just in case. I had this conversation, Techo, with you, literally. I had it with a client two or three weeks ago, in a… he tells me, ‘You say I should sell the bills to buy dollars?’ ‘Yes, but do you think the dollar will rise before the elections?’ ‘And I don’t think so, but just in case, I would dollarize.’ That, just in case. I think these people don’t think the dollar will fly, or they have no idea, but just in case, just in case, I buy. In total, the rate is not that high either. Annualized, it seems high, but we are talking about a contract that expires, what day is it today? March 11th, 18 days left, uh, 12 days left, March has 31 days, 13 days left. It’s little, let’s say, it’s not much, it’s not much the cost of hedging. So I think it’s more of a, Tincho, a just in case. We assume we don’t know what will happen, that we have no idea, because we don’t even have the phone number of the one who replaced Christine Lagarde, who I don’t remember the name of, nor Caputo’s. In fact, Caputo said he doesn’t know either what they will agree on, but the fund likes flotation, we all know that. The government is a bit divided. I think Milei is also interested, or likes the idea of a flotation. I think Caputo doesn’t, it gives me the feeling that Toto is totally against it. In fact, the mess with the IMF in 2018 was precisely because Caputo was not very convinced of doing this, and the fund more or less demanded it. If you want, we can see what the dollar future is here in the grapher. You see? Yes. Well, this is a matrix platform, from this broker particularly, Coco, you can see it in any other, whichever has a matrix. And if you want, let’s see the dollar future for March, the graph. Well, the RSI is almost at 90, but we’re going to remove it. You had a blow-up, it went from 1082 to 1170 today. A lot, yes, a madness. Bad, it’s 35, but they’re crazy, because for March, it’s one thing to tell me a year, and it could happen that in March, I mean, we are in March, we are in March. Look, my position in dollar future is very small, Tincho. I have one for January and one for December 2025, one contract for each, I’m a humble, one contract, and nothing more, just to indulge myself. But already January 2026, we are at 1422. What? 1422 for December this year, says the future.”
Watch the exact part of the video where Gus talks about Dollar Future here:
View the video on YouTube.
Read more articles by the world’s top 100 analysts on Dollar Future at the following link. BLOG.
