📉 The probability of a recession in the US economy is currently below 20%, according to the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia.
📊 Recent data indicates stability and health in the US labor market, along with expansion in manufacturing and services, supporting low recession probabilities.
📈 Projections for 2025 estimate a GDP growth of around 1.82% annually for the United States, further diminishing recession fears.
@ClaveBursatilTV:
“The index that shows us the probabilities of recession in the United States economy, prepared by the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia. We can observe that we are currently at levels even lower than 20%, with which the probabilities of recession in the United States economy for the moment remain quite low. This is added to the recent data that we have been seeing that denote some stability and health in the United States labor market and also the PMI reports that we saw in last week’s episode that show expansion in activity both in the manufacturing sector and in the services sector in the North American economy. In addition, the average of the projections has been pointing to growth around 1.82% annually for the year 2025 in the GDP of the United States. If we look at the mentions that were made about recession during the last balance season by the different CEOs of the United States companies, we can see that that level was considerably low, which is also in line with the fact that concerns about a recession for the year 2025 in the United States remain relatively low. In this way, from what we have been seeing, we could say that the market decline is mainly motivated by the uncertainty that has generated the entire tariff war promoted by Donald Trump, also justified by valuation ratios that were somewhat excessive, somewhat demanding. And it is not bad, it is even totally natural and healthy for the trend to correct prices and find more reasonable evaluation ratios again. But we saw that the probabilities of recession for the United States economy remain relatively low, and the latest data show some stability in both the labor market and economic activity. This combo of data and variables makes us believe that it is less likely that we are facing the beginning of a new bear market and it is more likely that we are facing a market correction that, beyond having already fallen 10% from the historical highs, could even deepen the fall further. But it would still mean a buying opportunity.”
You can see the exact part of the YouTube video where the stock is discussed by @ClaveBursatilTV below:
View the video on YouTube.
Read more articles by the world’s top 100 analysts on Federal Reserve of Philadelphia (N.A.) at the following link. BLOG.
