CELU
📉 Celulosa Argentina announced it hired financial advisors to analyze strategic alternatives for restructuring its debt profile, essentially signaling inability to pay its corporate bonds (ONs).
🚩 Significant concern arises from the stock price dropping 85% in the months *before* the restructuring announcement, raising questions about potential insider information leakage.
⚠️ Rating agency Fix downgraded Celulosa only *after* the negative news broke and the price collapsed, highlighting perceived failures in timely risk assessment for investors.
@ClaveBursatilTV:
“Regarding Celulosa, I think the most important thing here is what happened with the market. Yesterday, after the market close, Celulosa released a statement saying, ‘The most important thing is this: we are addressing you to inform that the company, Celulosa, in the context of a challenging situation characterized by a complex macroeconomic context, added to external factors in the industry, has decided to hire the services of Balo Columbus, a financial advisor specialized in investment banking, with the objective of analyzing strategic alternatives’—what jargon—’oriented towards restructuring its debt profile.’ Basically, you’re not going to pay the ONs. I think they told ChatGPT, ‘Look, I’m not going to pay the ON, but state it in the weirdest and most intricate way possible.’ And well, here it is. ‘The objective of analyzing strategic alternatives oriented towards restructuring its debt profile.’ It invited the company’s financial creditors to a meeting today, Tuesday the 8th. I don’t know if those of you who have Celulosa ONs went. What I’d like to separate is, one thing is for a company to do poorly and fall in the market or be unable to pay its ONs. But there are two other things that I think shouldn’t happen. The first is this: coincidentally, Celulosa, before announcing this—I believe it must have been a coincidence—dropped 85% in the last few months, and after doing that, it revealed it couldn’t pay its ONs. I wonder, I want to think it was a coincidence, that everyone selling just didn’t want to hold Celulosa anymore, they didn’t know what was going to happen. It must have been a coincidence. Don’t tell me they had inside information. We don’t know, we’d have to ask. The guys in the chat won’t let me lie; I don’t like the company, never have. I’ve told you many times I worked with them as a supplier; it’s a company I really dislike, very much. So, the guys already know. Even so, I bought something today, just a tiny bit, insignificant amount. With today’s drop, I thought, ‘Heck, I’ll see,’ but the ON, not the stock. The ON was down 50% today. This is one of the most liquid ones, CRCJD. It has a TIR of 64%, hard dollar, more TIR than Clisa. The issue is what happens because these people from Balo, who took over, never said… Another thing, people have told me, ‘Hey, Celulosa went bankrupt, it doesn’t exist anymore,’ a client messaged me. And why do you have Celulosa? I never sent an alert for Celulosa. ‘No, but I had it from before.’ They always give me that excuse so I don’t chew them out. But anyway, the point is, when they send me their portfolio as soon as they join the service, I check they don’t have Celulosa. So don’t try to fool me, guys. I’m telling you in front of non-clients, don’t try that because I remember, and I surely told you, ‘Celulosa? No.’ Even so, what I want to show… because some crazy person on YouTube once told me, ‘Hey, you recommended that stock because you wanted to exit.’ So I said, ‘I’ll show you the tickets.’ Want to see the tickets to see that I bought? I’ll show the tickets… Look, the last order today, it’s peanuts, but well, I bought something, 1330 papers. Something is something. Here it is, so you can see. Revealing his Celulosa purchase. Someone comments, ‘Celulosa sells 30% of the country’s paper.’ Right, in the age of digitalization. But anyway, it’s the best video store company in Argentina, dude, it’s not going bankrupt. But the issue is they are bad people. But that’s not why… What I’m saying is, because I remember what happened with Libra, and Milei said, ‘If you go to the casino and lose, don’t cry.’ I say, ‘If I go to the casino and bet everything and lose, tough luck.’ But if the croupier was in cahoots with the casino and the roulette wheel is rigged, and they make you lose, that’s not right. I mean, I lose fair and square if I bought the stock and it’s crap, my bad. But if they hide information, those who know and have inside info are selling and crashing the stock, and the whole market doesn’t have that info and doesn’t know why the stock is falling, and maybe says, ‘Hugo opportunity,’ and buys because the stock dropped and doesn’t know… And then another thing that came out yesterday, Fix, the same rating agency as Gemsa, Fix came out yesterday to downgrade the rating. It’s like having health insurance that attends to you after you die. You call, ‘Hey, I feel bad.’ ‘Does he have a pulse?’ ‘Yes.’ ‘No, then nothing’s wrong.’ ‘I only go if there’s no pulse.’ When you die, then I go and see what you had. No, Fix, stop messing around, dude. You have to look at all the balance sheets, three balance sheets back, two balance sheets back, and say, ‘Hey, watch out, it can’t have that rating because the company has no money.’ You can’t announce they were sick at the funeral, understand? That’s not what it’s for. Because it’s also a tool for the investor. If Fix had said with some anticipation, ‘Hey, the fundamentals of this company mean the ON rating should be lowered,’ they have to say it at the time, not when it’s already dead. The ON is down 50%, ‘I’ll lower the rating.’ I can lower the rating myself for that; I don’t need Fix. So once again, Fix or any rating agency being a necessary participant in the screw-over. I understand that the CNV acts afterward, looks back, like the justice system, comes and looks and says, ‘Yes, there was fraud,’ or ‘No, there wasn’t,’ after the mess has already happened. In that sense, it seems normal; it’s not like the CNV will protect you before it happens because I don’t know if that’s its function. But now I hope… I don’t think any of us here will sue Celulosa. It always happens, we’re all small players and say, ‘Well, I lost a couple of bucks, I’m not even going to waste time suing.’ But well, I don’t know if there’s some big fish or a class action lawsuit wanting to look into what happened there, or some lawyer who understands the subject better. But what seems very bad to me is screwing over investors because it makes everyone look bad. It gives me secondhand embarrassment. I never recommended Celulosa, but it seems wrong because then one has to recommend ONs or operate in the ON market with the premise that it’s a very safe market, and when these things happen, it makes you… It’s not safe, Tincho. I’m tired of explaining it. The thing is, what’s safe about ONs might be diversifying. Because one can name a company, say IRSA or Pampa, the first ones that come to mind as hyper-mega-ultra safe regarding ONs, or YPF. They are safe today because today they are doing well and making money. But who guarantees me that in two years things will stay the same? And in two years, when things start going bad, the parity is 60%. That’s the problem. ‘But when I recommended it to you, look how well it was doing, making lots of money.’ ‘And well, but now you tell me to sell, I’m 30% down.’ ‘But now the fundamentals changed.’ ‘But I already lost; I bought with good fundamentals and sold with bad fundamentals.’ That’s the issue. That’s why diversify, guys. The only way to escape that is diversification. Because if you had Celulosa’s ON but also had ONs from Pampa, YPF, Loma Negra, CPU (which I think also has some floating around), Edenor, then the hit is much smaller. Gemsa, because it’s only one that fell, not all 15 you had fell. One can fall, it can happen. And we also need to see if it actually fell; let’s wait, let’s see.”
Watch the exact part of the video where @ClaveBursatilTV talks about Celulosa Argentina S.A. here:
Watch the video on YouTube
Read more articles analyzing Celulosa Argentina S.A. (CELU) at the following link. CELU stock.
