MERVAL
📈 The Merval index has surpassed critical resistance levels, including the 21-period moving average and the downtrend channel, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
💪 The rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-period moving average suggests strong technical support.
⚖️ The index shows better performance in pesos than in US dollars (CCL), suggesting a purer and more reliable trend in the local currency.
🐊 The ‘cocodrilo’ indicator is signaling a ‘caramel point’ for buying, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
@ClaveBursatilTV:
“If we look at the Merval index, we have the entire journey of the Milei phenomenon. From this vertical, dotted, discontinuous line, it’s when he wins the ballotage. And, as of today, it is very clear that the trend is bullish. From this low to this high on January 7, there is a 400% rise. I want to highlight something very special: this chart is in pesos; it could be in US dollars (CCL), but the exchange’s database is in pesos, not CCL. You will see that we have, from January to the entire month of February and part of March, a correction that turned into a clear downward channel. It was against the 200-period moving average. If I want to take the Fibonacci of this journey, the retracement from this number three, which is the last bullish impulse the market had, we take it to where the correction reaches. The correction reached this level, which is 50%. So, it has something of 50%, something of the 200-period moving average. It doesn’t reach the lower edge of the original channel and is surpassing the downward channel. It surpasses it not only by the declining line but also surpasses it by the 21-period moving average and also surpasses the last high of the fall. This whole fall has decreasing highs, and the last decreasing high is here, and now it is surpassing it. Why am I going into all this detail? It’s to show you that if I see it in CCL, and here we have the chart in CCL, the last part, but what interests me most is this channel. After reaching 2,211 and falling to 1,720, it doesn’t manage to surpass the channel as of today. There is a different detail: in pesos, it surpasses it, and in dollars, it doesn’t. I want you to pay attention to that detail, where it always wins in pesos, always wins over the dollar. Why? Because the chart in pesos, the origin of the database published by the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, is the purest, it is more trustworthy. The other one is tweaked, and you know that the CCL is an exchange record that you can take by YPF, by Galicia, by volume, you can take by a small basket of the main ones that move the market. That is, it is at the discretion of the investor or the analyst, not at the discretion of the Stock Exchange. The Stock Exchange has only one data point, and it is in pesos. So, in pesos, it is always purer. If I am analyzing how the movement is, there is no imperfection in this movement. The chart tells me that all those who bought in this entire journey, which has practically a 28% retracement from the highs and gave a lot, didn’t even reach 30%, but in this entire journey, whoever bought did not lose. From this low to this high, which is 4%, are all those who listen to us losers? Of course not. They would have to trade tremendously badly to be losers. And if they bought anywhere along the way, they are winners. Before the Milei phenomenon started, you had a correction from this high to this low, here reflected with the number one, of a 30% correction. Who lost in this journey if all this was up? And in the second stretch, when Milei won the ballotage and was already in government until January, it only went up. But February and part of March fell to this point two, which is a 30% correction. Here it is not 30%, here it is 28%, but here it was 30%. Who really lost? Whether they bought it at the high, at the low, along the way, wherever you like the most, and where you had money, or where you had the intention to trade, or when you entered, you did not lose. And I want to tell you, here you are not losing either. Because if this 30% movement generated a significant impulsive movement, which was 127%, with a 30% correction, and then rose 8.5%, and the market remained saturated, on pause. And in that pause, in July and August, and more precisely in September, I told you, ‘Buy, buy, buy,’ because in October, it would skyrocket. And October, for me, was the last quarter of the year, and that last quarter of the year, with a definitively bullish trend, had to fly, and it flew. And you had the bullish dynamic. Now, if I take that dynamic from number three, that is, from August 5, when Merval falls 12% in a single day, from that low to the high, it rose 115%, and now it has 28%. And what corresponds to it from now on? We already know what the climate of the local and global market is like: high uncertainty in the world, economically and politically. And Trump’s messes. Also, here there were some messes; the pound caused a lot of commotion, and the latest movements from last Wednesday are also generating a lot of commotion. And what is the bearish environment? And do they have any reason to be bearish due to the 28% correction? In the world, it is bearish; here, it is bearish. And you know what? It hit against technical supports, and in this case, the 50% Fibonacci plus the 200-period moving average generated this, which one could say is a reversal or a rebound. And I’m going to say reversal. Why? Why not a rebound? Because the rebound is to hit against the averages and go back, and here it surpassed the average, surpassed the channel, surpassed the average, and is fighting the 22-period average. Obviously, if it is fighting the 42-period average, it is surpassing the 30-period average and is between the 30 and 50. But since I usually read with the 21-period moving average, because that 21-period moving average is for the operators. The operators look at the 21-period moving average and not the 30-period moving average, and the 30-period moving average is for the analysts. And who has more value in the market, the operator or the analyst? The operator. When he sees the 21, he operates. But of course, the analyst wants it to surpass the 30 to feel happy. It’s the secondary school, and generally, analysts are not so good because they don’t read so well. Many of them are biased, biased with a bullish trend or biased with a bearish trend. The operator is prepared for something else. The market goes up or down today, what do you do if it goes up, and what do you do if it goes down? The operator has to act. The analyst can say, ‘I do nothing, I watch.’ The operator cannot answer that; he has to act. They are two very different situations. So, it is clear to me that I let the chart speak. Let the chart speak, and here it tells you that it reacted. I’m going to show you how the crocodile is for the Merval. There you have it, total candy point to buy. Look how well it turned out. That’s why I said I want to see what is a rebound or a reversal. Look, it is surpassing everything. Look, this is in pesos, and it is the Merval, the one you have in your hand and can trade.”
Below, viewers can see the exact part of the ClaveBursatilTV’s YouTube video where the Merval Index is discussed:
View the video on YouTube.
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