Google’s Chrome Faces Antitrust Scrutiny
🏛️ Google is facing an antitrust case from the Department of Justice concerning its Chrome browser and its market dominance.
얽 Google argues that Chrome's features, like Safe Browsing, are deeply integrated with Google's shared infrastructure and cannot be easily separated or replicated by another company.
⚠️ A potential forced divestiture of Chrome could significantly diminish its functionality and value, potentially leading to its decline, according to the testimony and analysis presented.
iRobot Teeters Near Bankruptcy After Failed Amazon Deal
📉 iRobot's new management indicated last quarter that the company might face bankruptcy, highlighting severe financial distress.
🚫 The U.S. Department of Justice blocked Amazon's planned acquisition of iRobot, a move seen as detrimental to the company's survival and future prospects.
🇨🇳 While iRobot struggles, Chinese competitors like RoboRock are thriving and even planning IPOs, capturing market share potentially lost by the U.S. company.
Nvidia Faces New AI Chip Rival From Huawei
🇨🇳 Huawei is preparing to test a new, powerful AI processor, the Ascend 910D, aimed at competing with Nvidia's offerings, particularly within China.
📉 News of Huawei's potential competitor has negatively impacted Nvidia's stock price, causing declines as the market assesses the threat.
🤔 While the Huawei chip's performance is still under evaluation and its development is in early stages, it represents a significant effort by China to build semiconductor resilience against U.S. restrictions, though Nvidia's overall growth trajectory outside China remains a factor.
Texar (Ternium Argentina): A Risky Dollar Play?
💲 Ternium Argentina's stock performance is strongly correlated with the official USD/ARS exchange rate, making it sensitive to currency fluctuations.
🏭 Changes in export regulations, particularly regarding scrap metal, could affect Ternium's input costs and overall competitiveness within the steel sector.
👎 Similar to Aluar, the speaker views Ternium Argentina primarily as a currency hedge and expresses a lack of enthusiasm for holding it as a core investment.
Aluar: Tied to the Dollar’s Fate?
📉 Aluar's stock price movement is heavily dependent on the official US dollar exchange rate in Argentina, rising when the dollar strengthens and falling when it weakens.
⚙️ The company's competitiveness may be negatively impacted by the recent liberalization of scrap metal exports, as it previously benefited from purchasing cheap domestic scrap.
❌ The speaker expresses a negative view on holding Aluar, considering it primarily a hedge against official dollar devaluation rather than a fundamentally attractive investment.
GoEasy: Undervalued Growth Gem Despite Market Neglect
📊 GoEasy's earnings per share are projected to reach $20 in 2025, up significantly from $9 in 2021, yet the stock price hasn't reflected this fundamental improvement, lagging significantly below past highs.
📉 Currently trading at a low P/E ratio of 6-7x, GoEasy appears significantly undervalued compared to its historical average of ~15x and sector M&A multiples, presenting a potential rerating opportunity.
🛡️ The company demonstrated resilience by maintaining profits in 2008, and stress tests indicate only a modest (~10%) potential profit decline in a severe recession scenario, further mitigated by lower funding costs and active share buybacks.
Hertz: Ackman Bets Big on Used Cars and Uber
🚗 Bill Ackman sees Hertz as a prime beneficiary of potential tariffs, expecting rising used car prices to significantly boost the value of Hertz's large vehicle fleet (a 10% rise could add $1.2B, half its market cap).
📈 Ackman's valuation model targets $30 per share by 2029, suggesting a potential 4x return from current levels, based on improved fleet utilization (post-Tesla issues) and operational enhancements.
🤝 A strategic partnership with Uber allows Hertz to better utilize idle vehicles, generating extra revenue and leveraging its extensive network, an advantage smaller competitors lack.
Nvidia Valuation Attractive Despite Market Jitters
📰 Recent concerns about Nvidia, like the H20 chip ban for China and a Wells Fargo report on paused AWS AI investments, appear overblown or have been refuted, impacting only a small part of the business or based on temporary situations.
💰 Nvidia trades at the most attractive valuation relative to its expected growth among the Magnificent Seven, partly because the market perceives potential cyclicality in its AI-driven business.
🤔 While the risk exists that AI investment might slow if clients don't see returns, this risk hasn't materialized yet, and the core growth story remains intact for now.
Amazon’s Profit Engine Roars Despite Tariff Clouds
☁️ Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the primary profit driver, growing 19% last quarter, although slightly lagging Google Cloud's growth rate.
📢 Advertising and subscriptions are significant contributors with strong growth (20% and 11% respectively) and high margins, mitigating e-commerce concerns.
📉 While tariffs impact the e-commerce segment (only 7% growth), it represents roughly a third of profits; the overall valuation looks appealing at ~20x expected earnings in 2.5 years due to operational leverage in both AWS and e-commerce.
Google Defies Slowdown Fears With Strong Growth
📈 Despite economic headwinds, Google reported strong Q1 results, with constant currency revenue growth of 14% and expanding operating margins from 32% to 34%.
☁️ Google Cloud was a standout performer, growing 28% and significantly increasing profitability, indicating market share gains against competitors like AWS.
💰 Trading at approximately 15-16 times forward earnings (ex-cash), the valuation appears attractive compared to historical levels and growth prospects, reminiscent of its 2015-2016 valuation before significant appreciation.
