Google’s Growth Engine Roars: Time to Invest?
📈 Alphabet reported excellent Q1 2025 results, showcasing strong growth with overall revenue up 12% year-over-year, driven by Search, YouTube, and Cloud.
☁️ Google Cloud continues its impressive expansion, growing 28% year-over-year and significantly boosting operating income by 141% as it scales profitability.
💰 The company demonstrates robust financial health and shareholder value through significant share buybacks ($15B in Q1, $70B authorized) and dividend payments, alongside attractive valuation metrics suggesting potential undervaluation.
YPF Stumbles as Oil Prices Drag It Down
📉 YPF experienced a significant weekly drop of 3.6%, contrasting sharply with gains in the banking sector like Galicia.
🐻 The stock failed to challenge key moving averages (100 and 150-day) and instead revisited the 200-day moving average support level.
🛢️ YPF's weakness is directly linked to falling global oil prices, impacted by OPEC production increases, potential Trump policies, and global recession fears.
Galicia Bucks Trend: Can It Keep Climbing?
📈 Galicia shows relative strength, operating above key moving averages for the second consecutive week, unlike the broader Merval index.
📊 The stock achieved a 2.5% gain in dollars this week, marking its second green candle above the converged 100 and 150-day moving averages.
🏦 As a banking ADR, its performance contrasts with the energy sector, suggesting sector-specific dynamics are influencing the Argentine market.
Uber’s 2014 Valuation: A Deep Dive into Narrative vs. Numbers
📈 Market analysis in 2014 viewed Uber within the broad urban transport market, estimated at $100 billion, considering slow growth in developed countries (2%) but faster expansion in emerging markets (4-5%).
🤔 The core narrative questioned if Uber was merely a taxi service or a potential mobility disruptor, highlighting its efficient asset-light model, network effects, and standard-setting commission structure (80/20).
💰 Aswath Damodaran's 2014 valuation model suggested a value of nearly $6 billion, starkly contrasting with the market's $17 billion valuation, highlighting differing narratives and growth expectations, later debated with investor Bill Gurley.
EVS Broadcast: Powering Live TV with Solid Financials
📺 EVS is a key technology provider for live broadcast production (sports, news), boasting a strong reputation and client base built over 30 years.
💰 Financially robust, EVS reported record revenues (up 15%), healthy margins (EBIT ~22.7%), a strong order book providing income visibility, and a net cash position after share buybacks.
⚙️ While showing consistent growth and a solid ROIC (~20%) at a reasonable P/E (~12x), risks include dependence on broadcast industry investment cycles and the need for continuous technological innovation.
Supreme PLC: High Returns at a Bargain Price?
📈 Supreme PLC showcases impressive financial health with a ROIC nearing 40% and strong free cash flow generation, trading at a low P/E ratio around 7-8x.
🇬🇧 The company leverages a robust UK distribution network for fast-moving consumer goods, including batteries, lighting, and its own vaping brand, diversifying through strategic acquisitions like Ty-Phoo Tea.
💨 Regulatory changes in the UK vaping market (disposable ban) pose a risk, though the company is pivoting towards rechargeable systems and maintains a net cash position for flexibility.
Greek Yogurt Giant Kri-Kri Eyes Global Expansion
🌍 Kri-Kri demonstrates strong international growth, with yogurt exports surging 43% in the UK and 17% in Italy, now representing 63% of total yogurt sales, reducing reliance on the Greek market.
📈 Despite slight margin pressure from rising costs, the company achieved 19% revenue growth and boasts an impressive ROIC of 26.7%, indicating efficient capital use.
🇺🇸 Entry into the US and French markets presents significant future growth potential, although execution risks and competition remain key factors to monitor.
Hedge Against the Crash: Why Long-Term Bonds Could Soar
🛡️ Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, accessible via ETFs like TLT, historically rise when the Fed cuts interest rates during economic crises, potentially offsetting stock market losses.
📈 Current yields on 20+ year Treasury bonds are relatively high (around 4.8% discussed), presenting an attractive entry point if rates fall towards the historical neutral range (2-3%) in the coming years.
🔄 Investing in this type of bond ETF offers strategic flexibility; it can potentially be sold at a profit during a market crash, providing liquidity to buy undervalued stocks.
Amazon: Quality King or Valuation Risk?
⭐ Amazon exemplifies a high-quality company, characterized by super solid balance sheets, consistent cash flow generation, and healthy profit margins, providing financial flexibility.
🛡️ The company possesses durable competitive advantages, making it difficult for competitors to surpass and contributing to its resilience during economic headwinds.
🔄 While Amazon often trades at higher valuation multiples due to rapid growth, these can contract in recessions but tend to expand again during recovery, offering potential long-term opportunities, especially via DCA.
Texar Performance Hinges On Official FX Rate Movements
💵 Texar's stock price, like Aluar's, is strongly correlated with the official Argentine USD exchange rate.
📉 The competitive landscape and factors affecting input costs (like scrap metal exports) also impact Texar similarly to Aluar.
🛡️ Texar serves primarily as a market hedge against potential devaluation of the official dollar, not favored for fundamental growth.
