Apple’s Safari Shake-Up: The $20 Billion Question for its Google Deal
🤝 Apple's highly profitable agreement with Google, making Google the default search engine on Safari, is under threat. This deal is reportedly worth around $20 billion annually to Apple, representing a significant portion of its service revenue and net income.
🤖 An Apple executive's testimony in an antitrust case revealed that Apple is actively considering integrating AI-powered search options into Safari, which could replace Google and has reportedly already caused a decline in Safari searches for the first time in 22 years.
⚖️ The potential change comes amid U.S. antitrust investigations into Google's search market dominance, which could prohibit such payment-for-default deals, directly impacting Apple's earnings by removing a substantial, high-margin revenue stream.
Google’s Shocking Stock Plunge: Unpacking the Real Threat and Hidden Value
📉 Google's stock recently fell significantly, losing $150 billion in market cap in a day, due to concerns over Apple potentially replacing Google Search with an AI-powered alternative in Safari, threatening a lucrative partnership.
💰 A sum-of-the-parts valuation suggests Google Cloud (valued at $750B to $1T) and YouTube (valued at $600B) alone could represent a large portion, potentially 70%, of Google's total market cap, implying the core search business and other ventures are significantly undervalued.
💡 Despite antitrust pressures and competition, Google's core search business still generates $200 billion annually and grows at 10% year-over-year. The market may have overreacted, potentially creating a buying opportunity for a collection of valuable assets at an attractive price.
Vista Energy: A Top-Tier Choice for Liquidity in Argentine Bonds
🥇 Vista Energy is consistently recognized as a top-tier company within the Argentine corporate bond market, noted for its quality and financial standing.
🌊 Its corporate bonds (ONs) are favored due to larger emission sizes, leading to higher trading volumes and better secondary market liquidity compared to smaller issuers.
📊 For investment funds and individual investors, Vista Energy's ONs offer easier market access and price discovery, making them a core holding for Argentine corporate debt exposure.
San Miguel’s Bold Move: Debt Buyback Signals Confidence
👍 San Miguel, despite a complex financial history, recently announced a significant positive action: the buyback of its corporate bonds maturing shortly.
💰 This debt repurchase demonstrates the shareholder's commitment and financial capacity to meet obligations, aiming to reassure the market and avoid default.
📈 The move is seen as a confidence-boosting measure that could improve the perception of San Miguel's creditworthiness among investors.
MSU Energy: High Risk, Potential Reward in Distressed Argentine Bonds
⚠️ MSU Energy's bonds have been impacted by contagion from other defaults (like Gems/Albanesi) due to similarities in sector and leverage, leading to significant price drops.
🧐 Despite current stress and high debt, MSU Energy recently refinanced debt and shows a trend of quarterly net debt reduction, operating as a cash-generating power plant with gas supplied by CAMMESA.
📊 Investing in MSU's bonds is presented as a potential opportunity for high returns but requires thorough due diligence on its financials and debt repayment capacity given its distressed situation.
TGS: A Safe Bet in Argentina’s Corporate Debt Landscape
🛡️ Transportadora Gas del Sur (TGS) is highlighted as a very secure investment in the Argentine corporate bond market, with strong capacity to meet its obligations.
💰 Analysis of its bonds, such as one maturing in 2031, indicates TGS has sufficient cash reserves, making its debt repayment highly probable ("se paga seguro").
🌟 TGS is consistently ranked among the top-quality Argentine companies for bond investments, favored for its financial stability and liquidity in its ONs.
Pampa Energía: High Yields and Smart Trades in Argentina’s Bond Market
📈 Pampa Energía's bonds offer attractive yields, highlighted by a strategic trade selling a 7.5% USD bond to acquire a 10-11% Dollar-Linked ON, shortening duration and increasing returns.
💰 Compared to regional peers like Sencosud (5% yield), Pampa's 7.5% yield on certain dollar bonds is superior, reflecting a premium for its Argentinean base despite strong company metrics.
🇦🇷 Pampa Energía is considered a top-tier Argentine company whose bonds pay an "excess yield" primarily due to the country's risk ("zip code") rather than company-specific financial weaknesses.
Taiwan Semi at Resistance: Time to Adjust Your Stop?
📉 TSM's stock is currently in a resistance zone, exhibiting a complete chart pattern (likened to the S&P, possibly a Head and Shoulders).
⏳ If holding the stock, the advice is to wait and observe its performance at this critical resistance level.
🛡️ For those with profits, adjusting a stop-loss order is recommended to protect gains due to the uncertainty at the resistance zone.
MercadoLibre’s Strength: Hold On, But Watch for Gaps
✅ MercadoLibre reported a good balance sheet and shows strength to continue its upward price movement.
⚠️ Investors should watch for a small price gap; if it starts to fill, it could indicate potential weakness, despite a divergence and new highs.
⏳ The recommendation for current holders is to maintain the position for another one or two days while monitoring these technical signals.
YPF on the Move: Bullish Signals Amid Resistance
📈 YPF is currently in an upward trend ("en carrera") but faces resistance near the 40,000 (pesos) level.
👍 If currently holding the stock, the recommendation is to maintain the position and not sell yet, as the speaker would wait.
🐂 A bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart suggests the stock price is likely to increase further, indicating it "tiene que subir" (has to go up).
