YPF Nears $40 Target: Hold or Sell Amidst Market Uncertainty?
🎯 YPF is approaching the $40 price target, a key resistance level watched by the speaker.
⏳ The stock is struggling to break through this resistance, indicating potential difficulty in achieving further gains soon.
💼 The speaker includes YPF in their personal portfolio, suggesting a continued belief in its potential despite current challenges.
YPF Bond: High Yield Temptation vs High Volatility Risk
⚠️ This specific YPF corporate bond (ON) maturing in 2034 offers a very attractive high coupon (8.25% TNA), but comes with significant risks due to its long duration and high sensitivity to market news and interest rate changes.
🎢 Investors should be aware that while YPF is a profitable company unlikely to default, this long-term bond is highly volatile; its price (paridad) could easily drop significantly (e.g., to 80 or lower) due to market conditions, lawsuits, or political shifts, even if coupon payments continue.
🤔 The bond is presented as suitable only for investors with a high-risk tolerance who understand and can withstand potential large price fluctuations over the long term, explicitly warning conservative or novice investors against it despite the appealing yield.
YPF Stock. Navigating Legal Risks and Market Potential
⚖️ YPF's stock price is currently affected by an ongoing lawsuit, creating uncertainty in the market.
⚠️ Despite the legal challenges, the company shows potential for growth, especially if market conditions improve.
👀 Investors are closely watching the stock, with some analysts suggesting a possible rebound if external factors stabilize.
YPF Shows Resilience: Rebounding from the 200-Day Moving Average
🛢️ YPF's stock price action is notably responsive to moving averages, reaching the 200-day moving average and then rebounding.
📈 Since touching the 200-day moving average, YPF has shown a short-term 'V-shaped' recovery, with lows consistently rising.
📊 The stock managed to close the week slightly above the 150-day moving average, indicating potential bullish momentum.
YPF’s Production Costs in Vaca Muerta: A Comparative Analysis
📊 YPF's president and CEO, Martín, warned that producing oil in Vaca Muerta is up to 35% more expensive than in the United States.
💲 The high costs are mainly due to the elevated prices of special services companies.
🤝 Martín emphasized the need for these companies to adjust their rates to improve the sector's competitiveness, also highlighting the challenge of unions in improving operational efficiency.
IPF Analysis: Technical Levels and Concerns
📊 IPF is currently at the 200-day moving average, where Gus has taken a leveraged position.
⚠️ He expresses concern about the oil price chart and its potential impact on Vaca Muerta's profitability.
💰 He emphasizes the need for dollar income from Vaca Muerta for the country.
