TSLA
📉 Tesla reported disappointing Q1 results, missing on top and bottom lines with automotive revenue falling 20% year-over-year due to delivery drops and price cuts.
🚗 Despite current challenges, Tesla reaffirmed plans to launch more affordable models in the first half of 2025, utilizing existing manufacturing lines to manage costs.
🤖 The company is delaying its purpose-built Robotaxi volume production to 2026 but continues progress on FSD and Optimus, pinning future growth hopes on AI and autonomy.
@bernardodegarcia:
“Operating income okay, 0.4. Net income 0.4, quite good. I mean, look at the operating income margin. Non-GAAP net income, I don’t know what they’re taking out here, excluding stock compensation, digital asset gains and losses, so Bitcoin. Okay, ready. Operating cash flow okay, free cash flow of 0.7. I was afraid this would become a bit more negative. Tesla leaves out return to growth forecast from… Oh, what? Tesla leaves out return to growth forecast from earnings report. Uh, no good, no good. Cash increase, uh, cash increase of 0.4 billion dollars and investments of 3.7. New Model Y ramp outpacing all past ramps, meaning we are producing the new Model Y faster than we have ever produced any vehicle. Megafactory Shanghai has already produced more than 100 Megapacks. Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck now drive autonomously from the production line to their lots in Fremont and Texas. That’s cool, that’s cool. But do you make money with that? Hopefully soon. Let’s see because the last message that reached us there, I was a bit worried about the last message we just saw. It says that Tesla was taking out of its… of its, I suppose from here. Ah, let’s see here for a second, I’ll place you. Revenue, financial, cash, profitability, automotive core technology. Let’s go now to Outlook, okay? Uh, in the last quarterly results, Tesla was saying it will return to growth, that it is, let’s say, between two waves, a wave of growth and the second wave, okay? Tesla was saying it was here, apparently it no longer says we were here, okay? But well, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself, excuse me. That thought just crossed my mind because I read it from the news that pops up there. Well, in the first quarter, we have, uh, uh, we have achieved, uh, what nothing has ever been done. Uh, at the same time, we have changed the production lines in all factories for the best, uh, vehicle or the best-selling vehicle in the world, the Model Y. The Tesla team successfully, uh, increased production, the production lines in our four factories while managing supply chain problems on three continents without major disruptions, demonstrating the, uh, advancement of our operational supply chain in Jerry Jerry Jerry. AI is a pillar of growth for Tesla and the entire, and the entire economy and the key to our, to our sustainable abundance. Furthermore, the AI infrastructure is, uh, driving growth, a rapid growth load that, uh, with Utility Customs customer applications and traditional ones is creating an opportunity for our energy store, for our, uh, energy storage products to stabilize the grid, the networks, the energy exchange when needed, uh, when most needed and give more power capacity, electricity. Um, well, tariffs right now have a bigger impact on our energy business compared to the automotive one. We are taking actions to stabilize the business, uh, medium, uh, medium-long term, maintaining its health. Uncertainty in the energy and automotive markets continues to increase because, well, because the Power Ranger doesn’t stop throwing punches and, and flying kicks. This dynamic with political and sentimental changes, it’s not exactly like that, could have a significant impact on the demand for our products. It’s talking about how, effectively, the world hates Tesla because Elon Musk is, is firing civil servants, my goodness. Ah, uh, we remain, ah, committed to expanding our business and including, uh, uh, autonomous robots on many AI platforms. Customers interface of the low local manufacturing. Okay, nothing, I don’t know very well how to translate this but well, in the events of the, of the profit problems in the very short term, producing at low cost in a localized way in our base that we have built gives us an advantage in delivering the best products at the best price to our consumers globally. We continue making critical, uh, high-value critical investments while maintaining a very good balance sheet during this, ah, period of uncertainty. Tesla reports disappointed quarter results, automotive revenue falls 20%. This is CNBC. Well, CNBC, as you know, uh, loves Tesla, but well, ah, anyway, ah, well, we have it here. Tesla misses top and bottom lines, automotive falls 20%. Jigi jigi jigi jigi jigi, my goodness. And you have General Motors there, good luck to you. Let’s go. Well, here we have the figures. Yes, we are seeing here a 20% drop, as you can see, from the first quarter, 17 to 13, almost 14, right? Well, okay. Energy, on the other hand, rises 67% and services and others rise 15%. Total revenues fall 10%. Total margins fall 15%. It’s an open-handed slap and then the backhand. Operating expenses rise 9%. Operating profits fall 66%. God, how sharp. EBITDA margins or, excuse me, uh, adjusted EBITDA 17% down. EBITDA margins of 16, we fall to 14.6. And well, uh, it’s a disaster, okay? It’s a disaster, but, uh, on the other hand, we suppose it was already quite priced into Tesla shares. Remember that Tesla shares were 400, 488, more or less, I think, and right now we are around 240, that is, a 50% cut. I don’t know to what extent, well, meaning Tesla shares can continue rising or falling. As you see, they are not going anywhere. A bit, honestly, I don’t know, we are emotion junkies, we are volatility junkies, and this doesn’t give us an opportunity to buy or sell, but well. Earnings per share fall 12 cents. Uh, this is interesting. Well, more or less, cash from operating activities of 242, but well, the first quarter right now, I don’t remember what happened last year, ah, two, uh, 2.15 billion dollars, an 800% change, but well, it’s certain that this was a one-time event because then, as you see here, there are 3.6, 6.2, and 4.8, okay? Capex 2.7, 2.2, 3.5, 2.8, 1.5. Curious, why are you reducing capex exactly? Well, yes, I know, because otherwise you would report negative cash flow because you were already very broke, since you were already quite broke, honestly. But well, good. Ah, amount of cash, as you are seeing, 37 billion dollars. Ah, nothing in the ambulance. Ah, here we have, well, effectively the notes. I’m going to position myself so you can see my pretty face. Revenue down 9%, was impacted by a drop in deliveries, ah, partly because there was an update of the model across all our factories. Ah, we have reduced the average price of the vehicle, okay, to increase sales. We have had a negative impact on F, on FX, but this is now going to turn around because the dollar took a nosedive, which will be positive for these shares. We have had growth in, uh, generation storage and we have had more regulatory credits. Profitability CON 665 operating margin because we sold few vehicles and sold them cheap, and we have increased our OPEX for AI and other R&D projects. What are these other projects? Interesting. Partially offset by a drop in SG&A. We have had growth in energy generation. We have had lower costs in Cybertruck. We have had, ah, okay, yes, effectively last year was when, uh, the production of the Stronck began and so on. Ah, we have had a lower cost per vehicle, okay? Uh, raw materials and so on. Ah, and that’s it, okay? And then we have cash, okay, perfect. Let’s go there. Uh, production of Model 3 and Model Y, as we are seeing, from 412 to 345, but remember, this has been greatly, uh, impacted in a quite significant way, they already tell us here, uh, by, uh, pi pi pi pi pi, model update across all four vehicle factories, okay? They were updating the production line of the Model Y worldwide and therefore, well, the Model Y, well, there was a moment when it stopped being sold. Besides, that’s what we were saying, right? Meaning, if you, if you want to buy a Model Y, you want to buy it in January knowing that in February they will launch a new Model Y, are you going to buy a Model Y in January? No, well, you’re going to have a pause in sales, right? But well, the important thing is sales from now on. The important thing is sales, well, especially for the month of April. Uh, other, other models, production from 20, 26 to 22 to 17. Here there’s no excuse. Total production from 483 to 362. Deliveries 370, 32. No, well, okay. What is good is storage deployed, energy from 4.1 to 9.4, 6.9, 11 to 10. Okay, it seems we’ve fallen a bit short, right? It seems we are not, uh, advancing there as much as we would like. Well, let’s continue. Switch, as we said, the, uh, production switch of the lines for the new Model Y resulted in several weeks of lost production during the changeover. They also prepared our factories for the launch of new models later this year. When, Billet? When? Tell us something. Given the economic uncertainty, okay, okay, okay. Well, but we’ll see what it is. Given the economic uncertainty of trade policy, more, uh, affordable vehicles, meaning economical, are more critical than ever. Okay, here it’s already talking about this Model 2 or it’s talking about a new Model Y and a new Model 3 but mini version, I don’t know. Ah, it could be. You remember that Apple, meaning, doesn’t sell you one iPhone or two iPhones, it sells you at least three or even four iPhones. Then, at instances of increases of approximately $100, uh, the level increase, of course, you can buy the most expensive, imagine it’s $1,200, or the second most expensive at $1,100, or the normal one at $999, or then the other one that you have, well, imagine at $850, okay? The cheapest of all, which doesn’t go exactly like that, but of course, if you are going to spend $850, what does it matter spending about $150 more and having, well, x, y, z, such. And then, since you are going to, you have already convinced yourself to spend those, why don’t you spend the $1,100 and you already have the almost, and well, man, well, $100 more and you already have the pro, the best of the best, and that’s it. Psychologically, I think these are used as, uh, to incentivize the customer to end up, uh, spending more, but well, let’s continue for bingo. In April, Texas produced its 400,000th vehicle and the team launched the Long Range Cybertruck with 362 miles starting below $63,000 after incentives. Nevada, uh, reached, uh, record Battery Production. Model 3 and Model Y in the United States are now 100% with American batteries. We continue progressing in the installation of lines for Tesla Semi in Nevada and the Cyber Cab in Texas. Both follow on track for volume production next year, okay? So we have the Cyber Cab next year. Shanghai, uh, we reached, uh, uh, orders for a specific day, meaning sales, when we launched the new Model Y. So everyone was waiting for that launch of the new Model Y. This is good news. This is significant given that the region is the most competitive in the electric vehicle market and it is also a validation of our cost structure and our, uh, competitive positioning. Despite conventional wisdom being that competition will be bad for Tesla, we have always believed that it accelerates the adoption of electric vehicles and is positive for our, for our long-term sales. That’s direct because, let’s say, there isn’t yet that, there’s always that, that mm, I don’t know if I should buy a vehicle. If companies keep pushing towards more and better electric vehicles, Tesla will have no choice but to improve or sink. The model, but well, that also helps the widespread adoption by, by, by the market in general of electric vehicles. I tell my father, “Father, buy an electric vehicle.” And my father says, “I’m not going to buy an electric vehicle, I’ll get stranded on the road.” Like that, like that. And I’m sure many too, but well. The Model Y from Shanghai, ah, already has production in 6 weeks. Our, uh, maximum production, our, uh, our zero to 100 faster than ever. We have launched the supervised FSD in China, uh, with good, with good reception. This is true. Europe and Middle East, Giga Factory built its 500,000th Model Y, uh, recently. We have started deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y that will begin, uh, we recently began deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y. We plan to start deliveries of the Cybertruck later this year in Saudi, okay. The first Cybertruck made outside the United States. We continue preparing for the launch of supervised FSD in Europe this year, still awaiting regulatory approval. Okay, it’s, I don’t know about you, but it caught my attention so much that Tesla has, uh, FSD in China today and doesn’t have it in Europe. It’s not that you tell me and I don’t believe it. It doesn’t fit in my head. It doesn’t fit in my head. I mean, China, anti-Trump, using Elon Musk as a pawn, pipa pipa pipa, and has FSD, but Europe doesn’t because the Cybertruck is also still illegal in Europe because it has, it’s too sharp and if it hits you, it can hurt you and it’s very hard. It’s not a joke, it’s not a joke. I think we talked about this one day, it’s not a joke. I mean, Europe, uh, has its issues. Anyway, let’s go then. Let’s study the capacity as we always do. Right now we have capacity for, let’s put the figures it gives us here: 100, 550, 950, 375, 250, 125. All are more than, as you are seeing, okay? This is a total capacity to produce 2.35 million vehicles per year. But we only need economic stability that allows us to achieve this and that, ah, and that the market absorbs it, okay? Well, here we also have the market share of Tesla vehicles over the last 12 months. As you see, we reached a quasi-semi-peak in the fourth quarter of 2023, okay? Then, as we see, at least in the United States and Canada, we have had a small drop. We have also seen it in Europe. We haven’t seen it in China. In China, uh, it has risen. I wonder why. Well, don’t ask why. Well, I imagine this was, ah, no, because in 2024 we didn’t have Elon Musk working at Dodge. This was a bit more towards the second, third quarter? Yes. Ah, I wouldn’t know how to tell you. Anyway, artificial intelligence software and hardware. We believe that our approach to autonomy, a vision-only architecture with end-to-end neural networks trained on billions of examples of, of, of real-world information will result in something scalable and safe around the entire world. This has been validated with the launch of FSD in China, which has been, has been achieved without access to, to information from the country specifically. Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck drive autonomously without human supervision from the production line to the logistics areas in our US factories. We remain on track to launch a robotaxi in Austin in June and build Optimus in Fremont in 2025. This, yes, this is going to be fireworks and rockets and so on. This is going to be awesome. This phrase, excuse me, this phrase, I think, is already worth, I don’t know, 5 or 6% in Tesla. But of course, I repeat, these are promises, okay? How did Justin Timberlake say it, or what? Promises is, no, it wasn’t, what’s the name of that French DJ? Ugh, how old I am, holy virgin. Well, let’s continue for Bingo. I just can’t remember the name. Vehicle and other software. A major beneficiary of our software, of our software products, is that English goes all backwards, but well. A major beneficiary of defin… ah, okay. A major beneficiary of our products that are defined by software is the continuous improvement of functionality through, uh, over-the-air updates, okay? Or Wi-Fi updates, Bluetooth. Uh, recent updates to the vehicles chosen, ta, we have such. Well, I mean, wow, we are pum. I mean, okay. What is it telling you here? That you buy a Tesla and it updates and updates and improves and improves and improves. That’s what it’s telling you. We are not going to get tangled because, uh, my head starts to explode now translating battery and so on. We have launched IR, I complain, 4680 cell, making the Cybertruck eligible for the $7,500 with its tax credit. I don’t know how long this will last. Building on our efforts, ah, no, because of course, this is made in America. We have also, ah, developed 400, 4600, 4680 so that each component, uh, has or comes from at least two countries of origin. Our lithium refining, CAT Production are on track to start production in 2025. Great. Onshore production is critical battery photomaterial. Okay, here we have the FSD. Perfect. This is what I was saying. I mean, here the vehicle comes out, finishes production, and the vehicle drives itself and goes to park itself exactly. Energy storage continues to grow while deploying power, energy generation, storage, service and others. Okay, we don’t have anything interesting here. Look, catapuchis pum, both. Alright, Outlook. This is the meat. This is the meat and this is where, where they said that they end, that there will be a wave of growth for next year. Volume. It is difficult to measure the impacts of trade policy on the automotive and energy industries. Our cost structure and the demand for durable goods and services while we make prudent investments that will, uh, that will allow both our vehicles and energy, uh, to grow. The growth rate this year will depend on a variety of factors including the acceleration rate of our autonomy efforts, the production ramp, and, uh, macroeconomic events. We will revisit our 2025 guidance in our Q2 update. Okay. So it’s not that they are withdrawing guidance, but almost. Uh, we’ll see what they say in the call. Cash. We have sufficient liquidity, more than enough. Uh, profit. Although we continue executing on innovations to reduce operating and manufacturing costs over time, we expect our hardware profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI software and robotaxis and plans for new vehicles including more affordable models. But they are models, it’s no longer the Model 2, it’s models. They remain on track to start production in the first half of 2025. Okay, we start now, baby. The first half of 2025, ladies and gentlemen. I don’t want to tell you anything, but January is one, February is two, March is three, April is four. We are in April. Then comes May, then comes June. The first half is over. The first half is over. What does that mean? That Tesla is telling you that we are on April 22nd. I mean, say goodbye to April. That Tesla is telling you to get ready because between May and April [Mistake in transcript, likely meant May and June] we are going to start production of, ah, cheaper models. I mean, this is a bombshell. And I repeat, it’s promises, right? Show me the money. Show me, show me the cash. Do it, okay? But, eh, this is what we heard in the last quarter of 2024. This is what we are hearing in the first quarter of 2025. And for the second quarter of 2025, it will be already in July. I mean, it’s telling you that before we meet again, we will already have the cheap models. Okay. Okay. Well, ah, let’s finish and then, and then we debate about where it is and where it isn’t. And then if we have time, look at Enphase, but we already have to go to bed. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the Next Generation generation as well as aspects of our current platform and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our vehicles. This, ah, in this way will result in a cost reduction, ah, ah, this approach will result in achieving a cost reduction lower than we previously expected, but allows us to prudently grow our vehicle volume in a, uh, more, in a way without spending so much capex during these uncertain times. This should, uh, help us utilize our maximum capacity near 3 million, of 3,000 vehicles. Well, we calculated back here, although all this tells you they are more than, we calculate that these figures are approximately 2. Perhaps for the next 6 months, we could talk about between 2.5 and 2.7, right? So, well, there it says, well, approximately 3 million vehicles per year, okay? Allowing more than 60% growth during, uh, allowing more than 60% growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines. That’s quite good. Our Purpose-Built Robotaxi Pro, meaning our Cyber Cab, will continue pursuing a, an unboxed style of production strategy and will begin volume production starting in 2026. So, okay. Ah, we won’t have robotaxis until 2026, is what Tesla tells you. We will have, ah, effectively, cheaper models right away, meaning May, June, there it comes. And, and well, good. Honestly, you know what? It could be much, much worse. It could have been much worse. It could have said, “We are going to cancel this, we are going to cancel that other thing.” Ah, no, they don’t tell you they are canceling anything. They withdraw the guidance or seem to want to withdraw the guidance. That’s not good, but hey, I mean, h, not every year are we going to swim in the ambulance. Okay, okay. They emphasize that they will start production of cheaper vehicles this year. They emphasize that they will start with Optimus this damn year. They start with Optimus pa pa, and they start with Cyber Cab production in 2026. Look, since it’s 2026, for now, I don’t believe anything. We’ll see towards the end of 2025 how, how we are. Okay? Well, here we are, financial statements. Then let’s see if we make a video this weekend calculating the margins and so on because I don’t think they were pretty at all. And ah, and let’s see how the shares are doing. Well, there we have them. Ah, I don’t know. Let’s see what the call says. For me, if you ask me, I think the shares, ah, and I’m reading there, right? It has a forward PE of 110. I mean, it makes no sense. You are absolutely right, eh, Dana. Eh, you know what happens? Eh, I think we are, and this is, eh, this is a risky investment. Ow, I cut myself. This is a risky investment that I don’t recommend to, I don’t recommend it to anyone, but I think everyone knows that I have it, okay? I will never recommend to you or anyone else to buy any stock, let alone Tesla. In fact, I tell my father, “Don’t buy Tesla, eh, buy Verizon, buy Pepsi, buy Google if you’re interested.” Well, ah, but what happens? I think yes, this bad, this crazy rocket guy, I believe in him. I believe in him and I believe, I mean, eh, and he can screw me over from behind and he can break my portfolio, literally, but I think he will be able to achieve things that we didn’t even think were science fiction, like this thing about rockets taking off and landing, well, the robotaxis, well, the Optimus and so on. And maybe, well, he won’t be the only one, nor the best, nor will he be the first, but certainly he will be there. And ah, and honestly, right now what we have to realize is that if we are buying Tesla for the next few weeks, I think that’s a mistake. Tesla, any other company, unless we have another investment style, which are all, this is your safe place, eh, I mean, all investment styles are accepted here. But what do I mean? The way I see it is, we are investing in Tesla to see because we believe that today, Tesla, 18 months from now, a year and a half, Tesla will be worth much more, okay? 18 months from now, we will already have new models, we will have more energy growth, we will have the first mass Optimus working, eh, outside of Tesla, and, and, ah, and we will already have, in theory, the first robotaxis. This is too much, we will have, we will have, we will have. That’s true, but well, it seems, it seems it has taken off. It seems it has taken off. We’ll see how it goes.”
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