TSLA
📉 Tesla’s sales growth has significantly slowed, showing stagnation and even decline in recent quarters, a stark contrast to its previous high-growth phase.
📊 Earnings per share (EPS) growth has also stalled, with recent periods showing little improvement or even slight decreases, despite ongoing investments.
⏳ While the short-term technical trend appears bearish and fundamentals are stagnant, Tesla remains within a long-term consolidation range, with potential future growth drivers like robotics and AI.
@VisionariosBolsa:
“What are we seeing with Tesla first? Well, in the case of Tesla, we’re talking about a company worth 730 billion dollars. You already know it’s one of the largest companies in the world; it even surpassed the trillion-dollar market cap. But today, notice that after leaving behind those historical highs and getting a bit closer to that intermediate zone of consolidation it’s been stuck in for so many years, it has left that market cap to position itself in this zone of 700 billion dollars. It’s a company that, at the EPS level, is profitable; it’s profitable every year since 2019 when it started being profitable. But well, it seems a bit stagnant in recent years at the EPS level, decreasing a bit, generating slightly less profit. It’s true that we all know Tesla is a company that dedicates a lot of capital to reinvent itself and not just to keep growing, right? We know it’s a company that doesn’t stop creating megafactories anywhere in the world, but it also invests heavily in new sectors, future sectors, like we already know its robotics part with Optimus, like we know its AI part with the robotaxi theme it wants to launch, etc. Therefore, well, it can be understood that perhaps we don’t have as much stability in that EPS growth. If we keep scrolling down, what surprises me most about Tesla, especially for those of us who knew the Tesla of years ago, from 2018, 2019, 2020, is precisely the huge drop it has taken in sales growth. Notice that here we have the sales, the percentage that growth represents; last quarter, December 2024, where growth is 2%, after coming from 8%, 2%, and even coming from quarters of decline, for example, in March 2024, where we decreased by 9%. But notice how, in general, we’re talking about Tesla, at the revenue level, at the growth level, we can say it’s a company that is stagnant. It comes from being a company that grew, accustomed us to growing at digits of 30, 40, 50%, which was absolutely crazy, especially for the sector this company was in. But notice how today we can indeed assure that it’s a company that, in terms of sales, is stagnant. We are also seeing how in certain places like Europe, sales are decreasing quite significantly, and not precisely because fewer are being sold or the sector is cooling down, but because it’s losing significant market share compared to its most direct rivals. What do we see in the estimates? March ’25, precisely the results coming out today, okay? I’m recording this on April 22, 2025, and today we have corporate results at the close. You’ll be seeing this, if you’re watching it as soon as I upload it on the 22nd, before the results. So it will be very interesting to see what we see in those results because look at the trend we’re on. We’ll get into that topic now, but notice that the forecasts are for 21.3 billion, 0% growth, meaning sales are expected to remain stagnant. As I said, there’s no trace left of what Tesla was, of that growth Tesla had in the past. At the EPS level, more of the same, quite stagnant, many quarters where it decreases, grows very little. Therefore, we’re talking about a company that, yes, today is quite stagnant, both in revenue and EPS. Now, what is the chart telling us? Well, technically, notice how in Tesla we were very close to breaking this long base we’ve been configuring since late 2024. Finally, there was no continuation of that breakout, we came down, and since then it’s been an odyssey. Notice that we broke the 40-week moving average as if nothing happened. We started finding resistance at the 50-session, 10-week moving average, that red line. We have that cross of the 10-week average downwards, and right now the short-term trend, mind you, short-term, is bearish. That’s how it is. We have a moving average cross, we have resistance at the 10-week average, the trend is bearish. Now, what are we seeing in that bigger picture that interests us so much, in that long-term image? Well, that Tesla is really consolidating. Notice how we are within very well-marked ranges after that strong rise we had in 2019-2020. We are really within ranges. We had that false breakout in this area, as we just saw on the weekly chart, and we are simply playing within those ranges. Therefore, hey, long-term, as long as we maintain those levels, there’s nothing to worry about. However, in general terms, a stagnant company in the short term, perhaps a bit of uncertainty, bearish trend; long-term, we remain within ranges, all good.”
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