YPF
⚠️ This specific YPF corporate bond (ON) maturing in 2034 offers a very attractive high coupon (8.25% TNA), but comes with significant risks due to its long duration and high sensitivity to market news and interest rate changes.
🎢 Investors should be aware that while YPF is a profitable company unlikely to default, this long-term bond is highly volatile; its price (paridad) could easily drop significantly (e.g., to 80 or lower) due to market conditions, lawsuits, or political shifts, even if coupon payments continue.
🤔 The bond is presented as suitable only for investors with a high-risk tolerance who understand and can withstand potential large price fluctuations over the long term, explicitly warning conservative or novice investors against it despite the appealing yield.
@ClaveBursatilTV:
“How does this YPF ON work, which he, being ultra-conservative, saw and loved? It’s a special client who, when the portfolio drops 10% in a month, doesn’t sleep, and he came with this YPF ON which has a very high coupon. It’s a YPF ON that matures in 2034, has a TNA of 8.25%. That’s a huge coupon, folks, a very nice coupon, and it returns the capital in three installments: January 17, 2032, January 17, 2033, and the last one on January 17, 2034. But what’s the deal with this YPF ON? If it’s beautiful, it’s New York law, pays in dollars, YPF is a profitable company… you all know my main holding in Argentine stocks is YPF by far, not only because I like the company but because it gives me advantages for rolling positions, etc. I won’t explain rolling now; we see that in the course. But this ON is very long, therefore it has a high duration and is very sensitive. What do I mean by this? That being at par, any unfortunate news for YPF, which could be, I don’t know, we have the YPF lawsuits, that hasn’t been resolved, could cause this ON to go to 80 par value, to 75. I’ve seen YPF ONs in 2022, it was another government too, but at 60, 50, 70 par value. That can easily happen between now and 2034. Know that you will be exposed to volatility. That’s why I tell you, if you like the cash flow, the cash flow of this ON is beautiful, but know that in the meantime, there will be turbulence. I don’t think YPF will default, much less do I think YPF will disappear, much less do I think YPF will stop being profitable. But in the meantime, there will be volatility. ‘I want to go to finish.’ Yes, I know you want to go to finish, I’m talking to the person on the other side watching me, but understand that this 100 par value on a bond maturing in 2034 means that a lot of water will flow under the bridge in the meantime. You will have many moments of crisis in the national oil company, and the par value can go to 80, 90, it could go to 104 too, let’s be fair, but in the meantime, there will be volatility, and you’ll have to endure it. Yes, know that there will be volatility, folks. If you tell me, ‘Look, as long as I get the coupon on the day… what day? Let’s see, what day does it pay? July 17th and January 18th of each year, I’ll be calm.’ Well, I want to see that, because I don’t know if it’s like that, especially for clients who are just starting. What analysis do I want to do? This bond could easily go to 11 or 12 TIR. YPF bonds have yielded 25 and 30 TIR under Alberto. Imagine Peronism wins in 2027, whether you like it or not, but they win. What could happen with YPF ONs? They could easily go to 14, 15 TIR; they’ve reached 30 TIR, the YPF ONs, folks, 2 years ago, a year and a half ago. In the meantime, that can happen. It will represent a loss of 20% of the holding. If you can handle it, that’s fine, but I want you to know that you will have this volatility. I need to warn you so that in 2 years, or 6 months, or never, the day this happens, you don’t panic. That’s it, I won’t talk anymore.”
Watch the exact part of the video where @ClaveBursatilTV talks about YPF Sociedad Anónima here:
Watch the video on YouTube
Read more articles analyzing YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) at the following link. YPF stock.
